基于蒙特卡罗模拟的金属矿区周边农田土壤重金属健康风险评估
Monte Carlo Simulation-based Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Agricultural Soil Surrounding Metal Mining Areas
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摘要: 为评估赣西北典型金属矿区周边农田的污染特征和人体健康风险，采集了矿区周边农田表层土壤样品，测定了镉(Cd)、汞(Hg)、砷(As)、铅(Pb)、铬(Cr)、铜(Cu)、镍(Ni)和锌(Zn)8种重金属含量，采用蒙特卡罗模拟的健康风险评估模型进行了土壤重金属健康风险评价。结果表明，除Hg、As和Zn外，研究区土壤重金属Cd、Pb、Cr、Cu和Ni的含量均值均大于土壤背景值，其中Cd、As和Ni均存在超过风险筛选值的样点，超过比率分别为29.17%、4.17%和37.50%；基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率风险评估结果表明研究区土壤重金属的累积对成人和儿童整体均表现为不存在非致癌风险，存在可接受致癌风险，对儿童的健康风险均高于成人，其中As是致癌风险的主要因素。Abstract: To assess the pollution characteristics and human health risks of heavy metals in farmland surrounding typical metal mining areas in the northwest of Jiangxi Province, surface soil samples were collected from the farmland near the mining area. The concentrations of eight heavy metals, including cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), were determined. A health risk assessment model based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the health risks of soil heavy metals. The results indicated that, except for Hg, As, and Zn, the mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Ni in the study area’s soil were all greater than the background values, with Cd, As, and Ni having sample points exceeding the risk screening values at rates of 29.17%, 4.17%, and 37.50%, respectively. The probabilistic risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation showed that the cumulative effects of soil heavy metals in the study area posed no non-carcinogenic risk and an acceptable carcinogenic risk to both adults and children. The health risks to children were higher than those to adults, with As being the primary factor contributing to the carcinogenic risk.
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Key words:
- heavy metals /
- agricultural soil /
- health risk assessment /
- Monte Carlo simulation
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