种间关系预测(ICE)模型在水质基准研究中的应用
Application of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) Models in the Study of Water Quality Criteria
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摘要: 水质基准研究主要是基于物种的实验室测试的毒性数据开展的。对于一些毒性数据相对缺乏的化学品,水质基准研究就会受到一定的影响。本文从水质基准研究方法的角度,阐述了种间关系预测(ICE)的基本原理和基本方法,系统介绍了ICE模型的毒性预测方法在水质基准研究中的应用,并通过锌的ICE案例研究证明了模型在中国的可利用性。同时,对ICE模型的不确定性和适用性进行了分析。最后,对ICE模型存在的问题和未来的发展方向进行了探索和展望。Abstract: Water quality criteria study is mainly based on the experimental toxicity data of species. For the chemicals that have few or incomplete toxicity data, the water quality criteria study will be negatively affected. This paper introduced rationale and methodology of interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models from the angle of the water quality criteria methods. And their application in deriving water quality criteria was comprehensively analyzed. The case study of zinc proved the applicability of ICE in deriving water quality criteria for China. In addition, the uncertainty and the applicability of the ICE model were analyzed. Finally, the development of ICE models and their potential use for assessing water quality were also explored in future.
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